Thursday, January 12, 2006

New Boehner/Blunt Update...

Blunt is now claiming 100+ (likely low 100s) public/private commitments. This is a significant jump. The Boehner camp responded quickly claiming 86.

These numbers added together and assuming no one a)switches votes or b) is privately endorsing both (which is a bad assumption) this leaves a small handful of undecideds. Undecideds are likely a bad thing for Blunt as he should have already shored up his support meaning they are looking for an alternative. That alternative could be Shadegg (AZ) who Flake (AZ) has been actively touting. However-and this could be good for Boehner-Flake and others have indicated if Shadegg doesn't enter then Boehner is likely their man. The Shadegg camp at this point with so few undecideds must decide soon if it will enter the race or perhaps work on a big endorsement before he has lost his position. While Blunt does have a lead and apparently a large number of commitments, this is STARK contrast to the past few days when his camp has maintained they were about to wrap up the process and secure enough votes. Currently he only has about 60 members who are willing to publicly back him which is low for the apparent front-runner. The next big movement will likely be some sort of announcement from Shadegg and/or Flake. If those two decided to sway their support behind one candidate, it's a safe assumption that they would push them over the top of the 116 votes needed.

These numbers added together and assuming no one a)switches votes or b) is privately endorsing both (which is a bad assumption) this leaves a small handful of undecideds. Undecideds are likely a bad thing for Blunt as he should have already shored up his support meaning they are looking for an alternative. That alternative could be Shadegg (AZ) who Flake (AZ) has been actively touting. However-and this could be good for Boehner-Flake and others have indicated if Shadegg doesn't enter then Boehner is likely their man. The Shadegg camp at this point with so few undecideds must decide soon if it will enter the race or perhaps work on a big endorsement before he has lost his position.

While Blunt does have a lead and apparently a large number of commitments, this is STARK contrast to the past few days when his camp has maintained they were about to wrap up the process and secure enough votes. Currently he only has about 60 members who are willing to publicly back him which is low for the apparent front-runner. The next big movement will likely be some sort of announcement from Shadegg and/or Flake. If those two decided to sway their support behind one candidate, it's a safe assumption that they would push them over the top of the 116 votes needed.

1 Comments:

Blogger Matt said...

Have you heard anything about Ryan from Wisconsin? He was my Congressman back home, and a Miami grad I was just wondering where he fell.

1/13/2006 8:44 AM  

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